
2.1. Reference Upper-Air Network for trend analysis#
Production date: 11-11-2024
Produced by: V. Ciardini (ENEA), P. Grigioni (ENEA), G. Pace (ENEA), C. Scarchilli (ENEA)
🌍 Use case: A study on changing temperature over the Arctic region#
❓ Quality assessment question#
Is the tropospheric Arctic warming amplification consistently detectable (across sites) in the GRUAN measurements?
The evidences, both direct and indirect, indicate a substantial tropospheric warming of the Arctic over recent decades. Furthermore, models project that the region will warm more rapidly than the global average over the remainder of this century, with likely considerable impacts on the environment, ecosystems and human activities. Amplifying feedback mechanisms are based on atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean interactions, with the diminishing of the Arctic Sea ice cover playing a leading role. Understanding the climate change, and the underlying causes, requires an understanding not just of changes at the surface of the Earth, but throughout the atmospheric column.
📢 Quality assessment statement#
These are the key outcomes of this assessment
GRUAN provides reference-quality measurements with documented uncertainties, making it well-suited to the detailed analysis of Arctic atmospheric column characteristics. Analysis confirms that tropospheric Arctic warming is detectable in GRUAN measurements, though its magnitude and statistical significance vary across sites and seasons, reflecting regional heterogeneity in Arctic amplification. Temporal coverage can also constrain trend analysis, as it depends on when each station joined GRUAN. Nevertheless, the observational frequency is generally high, ranging from two to three launches per week to two to four launches per day, ensuring robust sampling of the atmospheric column.
Positive temperature trends dominate the lower troposphere at all three Arctic stations, with Sodankylä exhibiting the strongest and most significant warming signal. Ny-Ålesund exhibits more uniform but weaker warming, while Barrow shows mixed signals with seasonal cooling episodes.
Stratospheric trends are generally weak and less consistent, with only isolated significant signals (e.g. cooling at 13–15 km over Sodankylä), indicating that robust detection of stratospheric changes requires a longer time series.
Specific humidity trends are more variable than temperature trends. Sodankylä shows clear moistening in the free troposphere and a statistically significant increase in integrated water vapour (IWV). Ny-Ålesund and Barrow, however, exhibit weaker and mostly non-significant trends.
📋 Methodology#
To answer the proposed question, we intend to focus on observations at Ny-Ålesund, Sodankyla and Barrow, the three Arctic GRUAN stations, following part of the methodology of [1], where a homogenised 22-year Ny-Ålesund radiosonde dataset was analysed to infer changes in vertical temperature and humidity profiles over two decades (1993 to 2014). It should be noted that Ny-Ålesund has been the first radiosonde station certified by GRUAN. The authors found that in NYA, the integrated water vapour (IWV) calculated from radiosonde humidity measurements over two decades, indicates an increase in atmospheric moisture over the years (much faster in winter) and a corresponding warming of the atmospheric column in January and February.
The analysis and results are organised in the following steps, which are detailed in the sections below:
1. Set up and data retrieval for the three stations (NYA, SOD and BAR).
2. Monthly mean temperature and seasonal profiles
Radiosounding data are interpolated on a regular altitude grid with 50 m vertical resolution; the seasonal profile and standard deviation of temperature and specific humidity are calculated
📈 Analysis and results#
1. Set up and data retrieval for the three stations (NYA, SOD and BAR).#
The User will be working with data in netcdf format. To konw more about the GRUAN dataset see CDS entries documentation section.
Code:
Import CDSAPI credential and packages;
define parameters (time period, stations, downloaded file directory);
define request and functions to cache;
read data and compute functions.
Import packages#
Define Parameters#
Time range of data series can be set by the User; different stations can be selected by means of Station acronyms (list of GRUAN station acronyms, locations, geographical coordinates and WMO n. are reported in the Product User Guide and Specification for GRUAN Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind profiles available at [2]).
Define request#
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Functions to cache#
Download and transform#
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Figure 1. The figure shows a map of the three Arctic GRUAN sites, which represent distinct regional environments within the Arctic.
Although Arctic amplification affects the entire Arctic region, its magnitude varies among different sectors and is strongest in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean. In general, the greatest amplification occurs in regions experiencing the strongest reductions in sea-ice extent, where albedo-feedback processes are particularly effective. However, regional variations in atmospheric circulation [3], water vapour, cloudiness, and geographical setting [4] also contribute to spatial heterogeneity in Arctic amplification. The three Arctic GRUAN stations—Barrow (BAR), Sodankylä (SOD), and Ny-Ålesund (NYA)—are located in different environments and therefore provide complementary perspectives on the Arctic atmosphere, particularly in the lower troposphere where interactions with the surface are more intense. NYA is directly influenced by the Arctic Ocean and by the seasonal presence or absence of sea ice. BAR is also affected by conditions over the nearby Beaufort Sea [5], although its coastal location means that it is also influenced by the Alaskan interior. In contrast, SOD is located inland on the Scandinavian Peninsula, more than 250 km from the coast, and is therefore only indirectly affected by the Arctic Ocean.
2. Monthly mean temperature and seasonal profiles#
Figure 2. Monthly mean temperature profiles for the three GRUAN stations (BAR, NYA, and SOD), shown in separate panels. Due to limited data availability for SOD prior to 2011, the time series used in the analysis starts from 2011.
The monthly mean temperature profiles exhibit distinct annual cycles at the three Arctic stations. SOD shows the most pronounced annual cycle in tropospheric temperature, consistent with its more continental like climate, whereas NYA displays the weakest annual amplitude due to its oceanic background. A further difference in the vertical temperature structure among the sites appears in the stratosphere, where BAR shows a much weaker annual cycle than NYA and SOD. These differences are highlighted by the seasonal profiles (Figure 3), which reveal contrasting near-surface thermal structures.
Figure 3. Seasonal vertical profiles of air temperature (°C) for each station. Lines indicate the seasonal mean (DJF = blue, MAM = green, JJA = orange, SON = red); shaded bands denote ±1 standard deviation computed within each season.
BAR exhibits persistent surface-based inversions throughout the year, except in autumn when both inversion depth and strength decrease markedly. This seasonal weakening is consistent with previous studies attributing reduced inversion intensity to ocean heat release and delayed sea ice formation (e.g.[5], [6], [7]). SOD shows weaker winter inversions than BAR and maintains higher near-surface temperatures than both BAR and NYA across all seasons, consistent with its inland location and reduced maritime cooling (e.g. [8]). At NYA, the evidence of persistent near-surface inversions is generally absent in seasonal profiles; however, previous studies report frequent shallow inversions (≈ 80 % of profiles) under a variety of meteorological conditions ([1], [9]). Above about 8 km, near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere, the thermal structure differs among the three stations, likely reflecting stratospheric circulation and polar-vortex dynamics [1]. BAR tends to exhibit slightly warmer tropopause temperatures and a reduced amplitude of the stratospheric annual cycle, whereas NYA and SOD show more similar stratospheric conditions, consistent with a stronger and more persistent influence of the winter polar vortex in those regions.
3.Temperature anomalies and trends#
Figure 4: Monthly temperature anomaly trends (°C per year) as a function of altitude for the GRUAN stations Barrow (BAR), Ny-Ålesund (NYA), and Sodankylä (SOD). Red shading indicates positive trends (warming), blue shading negative trends (cooling), and hatched areas denote statistical significance.
The monthly tropospheric temperature anomaly trends also differ among the three stations. SOD shows the strongest and most statistically significant warming, concentrated between April and December. However, significant cooling is evident in June and October (with June being statistically significant), indicating complex month-to-month variability in temperature trends. At NYA, trends are generally weaker, but more consistently uniform throughout the year, with a predominance of positive values and statistically significant tropospheric warming between September and October. Only in December the trends become slightly negative between 2.5 km and 4 km, before returning to positive values in January and February, consistently with [1]. At BAR, the annual variability of the monthly trends is also high, with a pronounced and statistically significant cooling in June, like SOD. However, unlike SOD, BAR shows tropospheric warming in February and March.
To investigate the vertical structure of the trends, linear trends were computed for four altitude layers representing the near-surface region (0–1 km), the full troposphere (0–6 km), and the lower (13–15 km) and middle (16–23 km) stratosphere. Vertical means were determined by selecting specific altitude intervals and calculating the monthly averages. Monthly anomalies were calculated by removing the climatological average for each month over the entire period. The linear trend of the anomalies was then estimated, including a significance test.
Figure 5: Time series of monthly temperature anomalies at four altitude layers (0–1 km, 0–6 km, 13–15 km, and 16–23 km) for the GRUAN stations Barrow (BAR, top row), Ny-Ålesund (NYA, middle row), and Sodankylä (SOD, bottom row). Blue lines represent anomalies, and red dashed lines indicate linear trends, with slopes (°C per year) shown in red text.
Positive trends dominate both SOD and NYA, both below 1 km and throughout the troposphere. BAR also exhibits positive tropospheric trends, albeit of a smaller magnitude than at the other two stations. In the stratosphere, however, neither the magnitude nor the spatial consistency of the trends indicates a clear, consistent signal across the three stations. The only robust feature is the statistically significant negative trend of −0.19 °C yr⁻¹ between 13 km and 15 km at SOD.
4. Specific humidity and IWV anomalies and trends#
Specific humidity seasonal profiles and monthly mean trends#
Figure 6. Seasonal vertical profiles of specific humidity (g/kg) for each station. For each season (DJF = blue, MAM = green, JJA = orange, SON = red), the solid line shows the seasonal mean and the shaded band indicates ±1 standard deviation at each altitude.
The seasonal vertical profiles of specific humidity up to 10 km altitude show clear spatial and seasonal contrasts among the three GRUAN stations. SOD consistently reports higher humidity across all altitudes and seasons than BAR and NYA, mainly because of its inland location and reduced direct influence from the Arctic Ocean. Consistent with the seasonal temperature structure, NYA exhibits the weakest annual variability in specific humidity, reflecting the dominant role of the surrounding ocean. At all stations, summer (JJA) shows the highest humidity, with steep vertical gradients below about 2 km, likely driven by enhanced surface heating and evaporation. Winter (DJF) presents the driest conditions, particularly above 2 km, due to strong static stability and the limited water vapour holding capacity of cold air. Variability bands widen in summer, suggesting an enhanced role of synoptic-scale systems and local convection. Seasonal humidity profiles in the Arctic are influenced by a combination of large-scale circulation and local processes such as radiation, cloud formation, and turbulence [10].
Figure 7. Monthly trends of specific humidity (g/kg per year) as a function of altitude for the GRUAN stations Barrow (BAR), Ny-Ålesund (NYA), and Sodankylä (SOD). Red shading indicates positive trends (increasing humidity), blue shading negative trends (decreasing humidity), and hatched areas denote statistical significance.
In general, the trends in specific humidity show much greater variability than the temperature trends (Figure 7), in terms of both magnitude and vertical structure. SOD exhibits pronounced positive trends in spring and late summer at most altitudes, whereas NYA shows weaker, more uniform moistening throughout the year. Notably, six months out of twelve show statistically significant positive trends between 4 km and 10 km at SOD, indicating a clear increase in free-tropospheric water vapour content, especially during the months preceding and following the short Arctic summer (April–May and August–September). By contrast, BAR exhibits more variable behaviour, with alternating moistening and drying signals in different months and at different altitudes.
Figure 8. Time series of monthly anomalies of integrated water vapor (IWV, kg/m²) for the GRUAN stations Barrow (BAR, top), Ny-Ålesund (NYA, middle), and Sodankylä (SOD, bottom). Blue lines represent IWV anomalies, and red dashed lines indicate linear trends, with slope and p-value reported in red text.
In conclusion, the analysis of trends in specific humidity was performed by computing the monthly anomalies and linear trends of integrated water vapour (IWV) for the three stations. While trends at BAR and NYA are weak and not statistically significant, SOD exhibits a statistically significant positive trend (0.205 kg m⁻² yr⁻¹, p = 0.021). This finding aligns with the observed monthly specific humidity trends, suggesting an overall increase in atmospheric moisture at this continental location.
ℹ️ If you want to know more#
Key resources#
CDS entries, In situ temperature, relative humidity and wind profiles from 2006 to March 2020 from the GRUAN reference network
external pages:
GRUAN website, GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network
Code libraries used:
C3S EQC custom functions,
c3s_eqc_automatic_quality_control, prepared by B-OpenXarray for working with multidimensional arrays in Python
Matplotlib for visualization in Python
Scipy for statistics in Python
References#
[1] Maturilli, M., Kayser, M. Arctic warming, moisture increase and circulation changes observed in the Ny-Ålesund homogenized radiosonde record. Theor Appl Climatol 130, 1–17 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1864-0
[2] Product User Guide and Specification for GRUAN Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind profiles.
[3] Yu, Q., Wu, B. & Zhang, W. The atmospheric connection between the Arctic and Eurasia is underestimated in simulations with prescribed sea ice. Commun Earth Environ 5, 435 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01605-2
[4] Yang, M., Qiu, Y., Huang, L., Cheng, M., Chen, J., Cheng, B., & Jiang, Z. (2023). Changes in Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration in the Arctic Ocean over the Past Two Decades. Remote Sensing, 15(4), 1095. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15041095
[5] Ballinger, T. J., U. S. Bhatt, P.A. Bieniek, B. Brettschneider, R. T. Lader, J.S. Littell, R.L. Thoman, C.F. Waigl, J. E. Walsh, M. A. Webster (2023) Alaska Terrestrial and Marine Climate Trends, 1957–2021. J. Climate, 36, 4375–4391, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0434.1
[6] Overland, J.E. and Wang, M. (2010), Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus A, 62: 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x
[7] Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N., and Holland, M. M.: The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification, The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009, 2009.
[8] Remes, T., Køltzow, M., & Kähnert, M. (2025). Spatial variability of near‐surface air temperature in the Copernicus Arctic regional reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 151.
[9] Wang, D., Guo, J., Xu, H., Li, J., Lv, Y., Solanki, R., … & Rinke, A. (2021). Vertical structures of temperature inversions and clouds derived from high-resolution radiosonde measurements at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. Atmospheric Research, 254, 105530.
[10] Nygård, T., Tjernström, M., & Naakka, T. (2021). Winter thermodynamic vertical structure in the Arctic atmosphere linked to large scale circulation.