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""
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"
"
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"source": [
"# Plot an Ensemble of CMIP6 Climate Projections"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
"source": [
"### About"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"This notebook provides a practical introduction on how to access and process [CMIP6 global climate projections](https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/projections-cmip6?tab=overview) data available in the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The workflow shows how to compute and visualize the output of an ensemble of models for the annual global average temperature between 1850 to 2100. You will use the `historical` experiment for the temporal period 1850 to 2014 and the three scenarios `SSP1-2.6`, `SSP2-4.5` and `SSP5-8.5` for the period from 2015 to 2100.\n",
"\n",
"For the sake of simplicity, and to facilitate data download, the tutorial will make use of some of the coarser resolution models that have a smaller data size. It is nevertheless only a choice for this exercise and not a recommendation (since ideally all models, including those with highest resolution, should be used). Many more models are available on the CDS, and when calculating an ensemble of models, it is best practice to use as many as possible for a more reliable output. See [here](https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/CMIP6%3A+Global+climate+projections#CMIP6:Globalclimateprojections-Models,gridsandpressurelevels) a full list of models included in the CDS-CMIP6 dataset.\n",
"\n",
"Learn [here](https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/CMIP6%3A+Global+climate+projections#CMIP6:Globalclimateprojections) more about CMIP6 global climate projections and the CMIP6 experiments in the CDS."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"\n",
"The notebook has the following outline:\n",
"\n",
"1. Request data from the CDS programmatically with the CDS API\n",
"2. Unzip the downloaded data files\n",
"3. Load and prepare CMIP6 data for one model and one experiment\n",
"4. Load and prepare CMIP6 data for all models and experiments\n",
"5. Visualize CMIP6 annual global average temperature between 1850 to 2100"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
"source": [
"### Data"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"This notebook introduces you to [CMIP6 Global climate projections](https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/projections-cmip6?tab=overview). The datasets used in the notebook have the following specifications:\n",
"\n",
"> **Data**: CMIP6 global climate projections of near-surface air temperature
\n",
"> **Experiments**: Historical, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5
\n",
"> **Models**: 7 models from Germany, France, UK, Japan and Russia
\n",
"> **Temporal range**: Historical: 1850 - 2014. Scenarios: 2015 - 2100
\n",
"> **Spatial coverage**: Global
\n",
"> **Format**: NetCDF, compressed into zip files"
]
},
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"\n",
"
Run the tutorial via free cloud platforms: | \n", "\n",
" | \n",
" \n",
" | \n",
" \n",
" | \n",
"
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<xarray.Dataset>\n", "Dimensions: (time: 1979, bnds: 2, lat: 144, lon: 192)\n", "Coordinates:\n", " * time (time) object 1850-02-16 00:00:00 ... 2014-12-16 00:00:00\n", " * lat (lat) float64 -89.38 -88.12 -86.88 -85.62 ... 86.88 88.12 89.38\n", " * lon (lon) float64 0.9375 2.812 4.688 6.562 ... 355.3 357.2 359.1\n", " height float64 1.5\n", "Dimensions without coordinates: bnds\n", "Data variables:\n", " time_bnds (time, bnds) object 1850-02-01 00:00:00 ... 2015-01-01 00:00:00\n", " lat_bnds (time, lat, bnds) float64 ...\n", " lon_bnds (time, lon, bnds) float64 ...\n", " tas (time, lat, lon) float32 ...\n", "Attributes: (12/46)\n", " Conventions: CF-1.7 CMIP-6.2\n", " activity_id: CMIP\n", " branch_method: standard\n", " branch_time_in_child: 0.0\n", " branch_time_in_parent: 0.0\n", " creation_date: 2019-06-19T11:21:17Z\n", " ... ...\n", " title: HadGEM3-GC31-LL output prepared for CMIP6\n", " variable_id: tas\n", " variant_label: r1i1p1f3\n", " license: CMIP6 model data produced by the Met Office Hadle...\n", " cmor_version: 3.4.0\n", " tracking_id: hdl:21.14100/b6959414-d5ed-4cd9-a627-59238e52132d
<xarray.Dataset>\n", "Dimensions: (year: 251, model: 7, experiment: 4)\n", "Coordinates:\n", " * year (year) int64 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 ... 2097 2098 2099 2100\n", " height (model) float64 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5\n", " * model (model) object 'HadGEM3-GC31-LL' 'INM-CM4-8' ... 'UKESM1-0-LL'\n", " * experiment (experiment) object 'historical' 'ssp126' 'ssp245' 'ssp585'\n", "Data variables:\n", " tas (experiment, model, year) float64 13.75 13.62 ... 20.48 20.63
This project is licensed under APACHE License 2.0. | View on GitHub
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